Rocket Fuel Newsletter – April 2025 snapshot: Housing surge, economic uncertainty, NFL Draft impact

Can science help you train your dog?

According to a recent study by Applied Animal Behavior Science, early cognitive traits in puppies can be predictive of their behaviors as an adult. The study suggests that early cognitive assessments, like following pointing gestures, could be used to guide training approaches for dogs. Having a tailored approach could lead to more well-trained dogs and less accidents in the house.

This week, new home sales exceed expectations, the Fed Beige Book suggests there is uncertainty ahead, and we look at how the NFL Draft boosts the economy for the host city.

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New home sales exceed expectations

Sales of new single-family homes rose in March to 724,000, a 7.4% increase from February. The numbers of new homes for sale rose slightly from the previous month and sits at just over 500,000 (~8-month supply). The median sales price decreased 1.9% month over month and came in at $403,600.

Little economic change, but uncertainty looms

The Fed released the April 2025 Beige Book. The report highlighted little change in economic activity and a stable labor market, but uncertainty is widespread due to the unpredictability of the tariff policy. Additionally, prices increased across districts, with six characterizing price growth as modest, and most noted that they expect tariffs to increase costs.

Student loan collections set to resume

The U.S. Department of Education announced that starting May 5, 2025, collection will resume on defaulted student loans – those delinquent for over 270 days. Borrowers will be subject to mandatory collections, including wage garnishment and seizure of federal benefits like tax refunds and Social Security payments. This marks the end of a 5-year pause that began during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The NFL Draft took place last weekend in Green Bay, with hundreds of thousands of fans gathering over the 3-day event at the Packers’ Lambeau Field and the surrounding area. Revenue projections from the draft are expected to approach the $100M mark; it’s a far cry from the 775K visitors and over $213M in revenue generated by the city of Detroit during the 2024 draft, but obviously still a valued experience for Green Bay and the rest of Wisconsin.

One-time sporting events like the draft or the Super Bowl, unsurprisingly, are major revenue drivers for local economies, even those that take place in larger cities like Las Vegas or Houston. For smaller cities like Green Bay, the additional revenue has a much more profound impact on the region.

Looking at the last five cities to host the NFL Draft (skipping over the COVID-era events that were virtual or attendance-limited), Green Bay’s overall projected revenue may be the smallest, but it stands to be the biggest boost to its town’s economy.

While that money may not stay in the city - only about $20M of the $100M is expected to directly impact the local area – the impact of bringing so many people to Green Bay will radiate throughout the rest of the state.

Expanding our scope to include much larger events like the Super Bowl, Green Bay’s NFL Draft still ranks as the highest event revenue to overall city revenue ratio going back to 2019 (excluding 2020 – 2021).

How is this possible? Simply put: Green Bay is small, and if it hadn’t had an NFL franchise since 1919, there’s no possible way they’d get one now. With a population of just over 100,000, Green Bay is by far the least populated city to have a major sports team, and less than 50% of the next lowest – Buffalo at 250,000+.

That small population also accentuates the impact of a major event like the draft – if the expected revenue of $100M were split across all 105,744 citizens (as of 2023), each person would pocket nearly $1,000. The only other events from our group in the figure below to beat that were the last two Super Bowls in New Orleans and Las Vegas.

Compared to other draft events, it’s not even close. Green Bay’s $945.68 per capita beats out Las Vegas in 2022 ($761.97 per capita) and is nearly double the average of $538.32.

As Detroit showed last year with record attendance numbers, hosting a major event like an NFL Draft can be a tremendous boom to the local economy. Green Bay has likely felt this to extreme levels, and post-event revenue totals should paint a fascinating picture for the fiscal outlook for the small northern Wisconsin town.

Purchase season is here. Stay prepared by engaging with industry leaders and discovering what’s next. We’ll be at these top events. Let’s connect!

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